What Is This?
Bubble Trouble monitors six carefully selected signals across three layers — structural, financing, and peak detection — to assess whether the AI infrastructure investment cycle is approaching bubble territory and, if so, whether the unwind has begun.
This is not a recession detector, a Fed policy tracker, or a general market timing system. It has one purpose: to help identify when sector-specific bubble dynamics have formed in AI infrastructure spending and when those dynamics are beginning to reverse.
The Two-Horizon Architecture
Structural Layer (Slow)
Detects whether a bubble regime exists by monitoring the divergence between AI capex spending and the revenue it generates, plus stress in the private credit markets that finance the buildout.
Peak Detection Layer (Fast)
Confirms whether the unwind is beginning by tracking semiconductor leadership, market breadth across the AI ecosystem, and margin debt trends.
Key Facts
6 Signals
Carefully curated MVP set — fewer signals, better understood.
4 Alert Levels
From All Clear (0) to Cascade Confirmed (3), each with specific action recommendations.
Persistence Required
No signal escalates without meeting minimum duration thresholds — reducing false positives.
Built-in Safeguards
Escalation blockers, sector-linkage vetos, and maximum escalation speed limits.